Elasticity of US Federal Income Tax Liabilities
Calculations from the NBER TAXSIM model.
| 1960 | 1.558 |
| 1961 | 1.550 |
| 1962 | 1.535 |
| 1963 | 1.528 |
| 1964 | 1.566 |
| 1965 | 1.450 |
| 1966 | 1.427 |
| 1967 | 1.414 |
| 1968 | 1.398 |
| 1969 | 1.389 |
| 1970 | 1.391 |
| 1971 | 1.451 |
| 1972 | 1.478 |
| 1973 | 1.453 |
| 1974 | 1.444 |
| 1975 | 1.580 |
| 1976 | 1.572 |
| 1977 | 1.537 |
| 1978 | 1.504 |
| 1979 | 2.220 |
| 1980 | 2.212 |
| 1981 | 2.118 |
| 1982 | 2.103 |
| 1983 | 2.093 |
| 1984 | 2.107 |
| 1985 | 2.097 |
| 1986 | 2.104 |
| 1987 | 1.672 |
| 1988 | 1.613 |
| 1989 | 1.601 |
| 1990 | 1.600 |
| 1991 | 1.618 |
| 1992 | 1.627 |
| 1993 | 1.633 |
| 1994 | 1.666 |
| 1995 | 1.672 |
| 1996 | 1.671 |
| 1997 | 1.677 |
| 1998 | 1.705 |
| 1999 | 1.690 |
| 2000 | 1.661 |
| 2001 | 1.740 |
| 2002 | 1.740 |
| 2003 | 1.752 |
| 2004 | 1.750 |
| 2005 | 1.740 |
| 2006 | 1.740 |
| 2007 | 1.736 |
| 2008 | 1.760 |
| 2009 | 1.980 |
| 2010 | 1.942 |
| 2011 | 1.792 |
| 2012 | 1.788 |
| 2013 | 1.801 |
| 2014 | 1.771 |
| 2015 | 1.765 |
The elasticity shown is the percentage change in federal income tax liability (including EITC and minimum taxes, but not payroll taxes) for a one percent change in all income and deduction items.
Tax law for 2010+ includes 2011 extensions.
The calculation is based on 1984 income and deduction levels, in(de)flated to each year, without regard to the actual distribution of income each year.
For 1987 on, the increase in income is assumed to be real. For earlier years, it does not matter.
Daniel Feenberg
23 August 2016