Elasticity of US Federal Income Tax Liabilities
Calculations from the NBER TAXSIM model.
| 1960 | 1.604 |
| 1961 | 1.614 |
| 1962 | 1.603 |
| 1963 | 1.591 |
| 1964 | 1.623 |
| 1965 | 1.608 |
| 1966 | 1.604 |
| 1967 | 1.593 |
| 1968 | 1.569 |
| 1969 | 1.561 |
| 1970 | 1.576 |
| 1971 | 1.621 |
| 1972 | 1.653 |
| 1973 | 1.641 |
| 1974 | 1.625 |
| 1975 | 1.749 |
| 1976 | 1.753 |
| 1977 | 1.744 |
| 1978 | 1.737 |
| 1979 | 1.771 |
| 1980 | 1.755 |
| 1981 | 1.740 |
| 1982 | 1.735 |
| 1983 | 1.713 |
| 1984 | 1.693 |
| 1985 | 1.671 |
| 1986 | 1.636 |
| 1987 | 1.640 |
| 1988 | 1.546 |
| 1989 | 1.558 |
| 1990 | 1.564 |
| 1991 | 1.597 |
| 1992 | 1.579 |
| 1993 | 1.601 |
| 1994 | 1.640 |
| 1995 | 1.633 |
| 1996 | 1.610 |
| 1997 | 1.585 |
| 1998 | 1.642 |
| 1999 | 1.617 |
| 2000 | 1.587 |
| 2001 | 1.727 |
| 2002 | 1.778 |
| 2003 | 1.763 |
| 2004 | 1.724 |
| 2005 | 1.678 |
| 2006 | 1.665 |
| 2007 | 1.640 |
| 2008 | 1.712 |
| 2009 | @na |
| 2010 | @na |
| 2011 | 1.745 |
| 2012 | 1.667 |
| 2013 | 1.662 |
| 2014 | 1.643 |
| 2015 | 1.617 |
The elasticity shown is the percentage change in federal income tax liability (including EITC and minimum taxes, but not payroll taxes) for a one percent change in all income and deduction items.
Tax law for 2010+ includes 2011 extensions.
The calculation is based on public use data from the IRS Statistics of Income Division and the NBER's TAXSIM model. No data is available for 1961, 1963, and 1965, so data is interpolated from the prior year. For 2011 and after, income and deduction items are extrapolated from 2008 data
For 1987 on, the increase in income is assumed to be real. For earlier years, it does not matter.
Daniel Feenberg
23 August 2016